We've got a horse race

The race is getting tighter according to the Iowa Electronic Markets where people put real money down on the election. Until recent days, the money was saying that Bush would win the popular vote, likely be a comfortable margin. Now opinion is shifting to say neither candidate, especially not Kerry, will garner more than 52%.

In the first chart, the red line essentially represents people's guess of Bush's chance of winning the two-party popular vote; the blue line is Kerry:


(Click image to enlarge.)



(Click image to enlarge.)

Key to the second chart:

• Dark blue: Kerry receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
• Light blue: Kerry receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
• Purple: Bush receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
• Red: Bush receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote

Note in the second chart the light blue and purple lines emerging neck and neck. Also note the red line, which had been the highest of all, dropping precipitously (though it still is significantly above its counterpart, the dark blue line).