David M: A look back at Bolten's OMB record

Now that Josh Bolten has become the president's chief of staff, I decided to look back at his record as budget director.

Bush has taken serious heat from Conservatives for lack of spending restraint. I asked earlier, to what degree was Bolten part of the problem? Certainly Congress has its say on spending, as does the President; to some degree the head of OMB is merely carrying out administration policy. But it is a cabinet-level post that presumably carries with it some ability to influence that policy.

Let's take a look at federal spending numbers in the Bolten OMB era. According to his bio on the OMB site, Bolten took over OMB in June 2003, which I believe means he had significant impact starting with the FY 2005 budget.

I first looked at federal outlays as a percent of GDP. In FY 2005 federal spending comprised 20.1% of GDP, and in FY 2006 it was estimated to be 20.8%. FY 2007 outlays are estimated to come in at 20.1% of GDP. How do these data stack up historically? Here is a graph of federal outlays as a percent of GDP from 1979 through 2007 (est). The last three bars are the Bolten era at OMB:

(Click on image to enlarge in separate window.)
Source data from US Budget for Fiscal Year 2007, Historical Tables, table 1.2

Federal spending in the Bolten OMB era, as a percent of GDP, was higher than at any prior time since the mid 1990s. But it was lower than any time in the 1980s through the mid 1990s.

What if we look at the annual increase in federal spending? Here is a graph of the year-over-year spending increase for each year since 1979. Once again, the last three bars represent the Bolten era at OMB:

(Click on image to enlarge in separate window.)
Source data from US Budget for Fiscal Year 2007, Historical Tables, table 1.1

The increases in federal spending in 2005 (7.8%) and 2006 (est) (9.6%) were both high by historical standards. Indeed the 2006 increase is the highest since 1985, but lower than four of the six years from 1980 to 1985. In 2007, if you believe the number, growth in outlays will slow to 2.3%.

So overall, how did Bolten do restraining spending? So so. Given that we were paying for a war, not terribly.

Next up we need the same analysis for spending exclusive of defense and homeland security.

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