Thursday, September 30, 2004

Senate race

If you're interested in how the Senate races will turn out, here is National Review's state-by-state analysis (of the states which are not foregone conclusions) with a prediction that Republicans will pick up two seats.

Here's my prediction: presidential coat-tails will determine the Senate. For every percent over 50 that a presidential candidate garners in the popular vote, his party will pick up one Senate seat. If the popular vote is 50-50, neither side will pick up any Senate seats.