Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Nov. 3 News: Kerry could still win; Bush could win in a landslide. Really. Kind of.

It's November 3 at 3 p.m. ET, and depending on your source of news, Wisconsin is either called for Bush, called for Kerry, or not called. Same with Iowa. New Mexico is either called for Bush or not called. Same with Ohio.

If you believe ABC News, which has not called any of the four states, Kerry could still pull out an electoral victory. On the other hand if you believe web site RealClearPolitics, all four states are called for Bush, giving him 294 electoral votes. (Interestingly, in this scenario Ohio could have gone to Kerry without changing the electoral outcome).

To the degree that the main stream media have reached consensus, it seems to be that Bush won Ohio, Kerry won Wisconsin, and Iowa and New Mexico are not yet decided. Yet if you examine the closeness of the race and the number of votes not yet counted, Wisconsin looks just as close as Iowa or New Mexico.

Without further ado, here is how some news sources are calling them.

Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Ohio not called:

Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin not called; Ohio to Bush:

Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio not called; Wisconsin to Kerry:

Iowa and New Mexico not called; Wisconsin to Kerry; Ohio to Bush:

Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin to Bush:
New Mexico, Ohio and Wisconsin to Bush; Iowa to Kerry: