Dean-supporting Yale economist predicts 57% Bush win
Yale economics professor and Howard Dean supporter Ray Fair has developed an economic model which predicts a Bush landslide in 2004:
These new [as of July 31, 2004] economic values give a prediction of 57.48 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush...Fair points out that if he is known to be a Republican, people may write off his projection of a large Bush victory as pro-Bush propaganda; if he is known to be a Democrat, his prediction may seem more credible.
Seems to me he's a Democrat and hence unlikely to be a pro-Bush propagandist.
From searching FEC data, I found that Fair gave $250 to Howard Dean's campaign last November. Given that Dean ran on an anti-Bush platform, it is a reasonable guess that Fair prefers Kerry to Bush.
Is it plausible that Fair is a Bush supporter who thought Dean would be the easiest candidate to beat? That's what experienced doctors call a zebra diagnosis (where a new intern hears hoof beats and expects to see a zebra) .
(Thanks to Right Side Redux for the original link to the study.)
Update: Fair gave away his Kerry partisanship in an Aug. 15 NY Times Magazine interview.
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