Tuesday, August 03, 2004

Dean-supporting Yale economist predicts 57% Bush win

Yale economics professor and Howard Dean supporter Ray Fair has developed an economic model which predicts a Bush landslide in 2004:
These new [as of July 31, 2004] economic values give a prediction of 57.48 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush...
Fair points out that if he is known to be a Republican, people may write off his projection of a large Bush victory as pro-Bush propaganda; if he is known to be a Democrat, his prediction may seem more credible.

Seems to me he's a Democrat and hence unlikely to be a pro-Bush propagandist.

From searching FEC data, I found that Fair gave $250 to Howard Dean's campaign last November. Given that Dean ran on an anti-Bush platform, it is a reasonable guess that Fair prefers Kerry to Bush.

Is it plausible that Fair is a Bush supporter who thought Dean would be the easiest candidate to beat? That's what experienced doctors call a zebra diagnosis (where a new intern hears hoof beats and expects to see a zebra) .

(Thanks to Right Side Redux for the original link to the study.)

Update: Fair gave away his Kerry partisanship in an Aug. 15 NY Times Magazine interview.