Thursday, November 04, 2004

David M's prognostications

I give myself a rating of fair on political prognostications in this blog:
  • On May 27 I predicted that Bush would be re-elected. Accuracy: Good.
  • On May 27 I predicted that Hillary would win the presidency in 2008. Accuracy: Unknown.
  • On September 30 I predicted that for every percent over 50 that a presidential candidate won in the popular vote, his party would pick up one Senate seat. Accuracy: fair to poor. Directionally I was accurate in that Bush won the popular vote and his party picked up Senate seats. But since Bush won 51% of the popular vote (garnering a three-point margin) my prediction would have yielded one new Republican Senate seat. In fact the Republicans picked up four seats.