The money's on Bush Kerry Bush?

Tradesports is a market when real people risk real money on the outcome of the presidential election. As of 11:04 a.m. ET, the last trades gave Bush a 55.3% chance of victory, Kerry 44.8%.

November 1 (all times eastern):

• 11:04 a.m.: Bush leads 55.3-44.8 (10.5-point difference)
• 3:22 p.m.: Bush leads 56.0-44.1 (11.9-point difference)
• 7:01 p.m.: Bush leads 54.4-46.3 (8.1-point difference)
• 9:37 p.m.: Bush leads 53.5-47.0 (6.5-point difference)

November 2 (all times eastern):

• 8:50 a.m.: Bush leads 55.0-46.0 (9.0-point difference)
• 8:53 a.m.: Bush leads 54.0-48.0 (6.0-point difference)
• 10:23 a.m: Bush leads 54.0-47.9 (6.1-point difference)
• 11:21 a.m.: Bush leads 56.0-43.7 (12.3-point difference)
• 1:00 p.m.: Bush leads 56.1-43.0 (13.1-point difference)
• 2:07 p.m.: Bush leads 57.0-43.3 (13.7-point difference)
• 2:37 p.m.: Bush leads 55.0-45.0 (10.0-point difference)
• 4:29 p.m.: Kerry leads 52.0-48.0 (4.0-point difference)
• 4:38 p.m.: Kerry leads 66.0-35.0 (31.0-point difference)
• 9:21 p.m.: Kerry leads 57.0-44.0 (13.0-point difference)
• 9:40 p.m.: Kerry leads 54.0-47.5 (6.5-point difference)
• 9:41 p.m.: Kerry leads 53.0-48.0 (5.0-point difference)
• 9:46 p.m.: Kerry leads 51.1-48.0 (3.1-point difference)
• 9:52 p.m.: Bush leads 55.0-45.0 (10.0-point difference)
• 10:14 p.m.: Bush leads 63.0-35.5 (27.5-point difference)

November 3 (all times eastern):

• 10:00 a.m.: Bush leads 97.0-3.0 (94.0-point difference)
• 10:38 a.m.: Bush leads 97.5-2..5 (95.0-point difference)

Bold type indicates a lead change.