Monday, August 08, 2005

Hillary and the '08 election

Victor Davis Hanson writes of Hillary Clinton's preparation for the 2008 election:
What a strange metamorphosis -- a candidate still in the veiled chrysalis stage, whose supporters fear the eventual new creature may emerge a centrist butterfly while detractors are even more convinced she will turn out to be a liberal moth.
As of May 24, 2005, on betting site Clinton had a 43.7% chance of winning the 2008 Democratic nomination. (Technically, a contract which pays $100 if Clinton wins the nomination traded at $43.70 on that date.)

As of the most recent trade today, Clinton's chances to garner the nomination have risen slightly to 44.8% (that is, $44.80). (The order of the frontrunners has not changed: Clinton, Mark Warner, Evan Bayh, John Edwards.)

Also as of the latest trade today, the Democratic nominee has a 50.8% ($50.80) chance to win the general election. The Republican nominee stands at 48.4% ($48.40) and "any other candidate" stands at 1.2% ($1.20).

(In May 2004 I predicted Clinton would win the presidency in 2008. I stand by the prediction. May events please prove me wrong.)

  • Memeorandum notes an LA Times headline today:
    Clinton Is Cultivating an Image as a Centrist: The partisan label she acquired as first lady is being remade in New York and the Senate.
  • Patterico thinks the LA Times is a bit too eager in helping Clinton along with her metamorphosis: L.A. Times Determined to Beat Into Its Readers’ Heads the Idea that Hillary Is a Centrist

  • Kathryn Jean Lopez replies to a former Clinton hater who has "come to respect her" because she is "a lot more moderate now":
    Why? Her record does not suggest a mod, peeps.
  • The Anchoress takes note of the LA Times headline:
    "Cultivating an image..."

    Well, that’s honest enough. But if one is being oneself, one needn’t cultivate an image.

    If one is not being oneself, I suppose, then that’s a different story.